By May 5th, 2020, an early report, using the number of curfew days in 49 countries, found evidence that lockdown could be used to suppress the spread of COVID-19 24. Brazilian researchers have published mathematical models of spreading patterns 22 and suggested implementing social distancing measures and protection policies to control virus transmission 23. Some mathematical models and meta-analyses have shown a marked reduction in COVID-19 cases 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 and deaths 20, 21 associated with lockdown policies. These measures were supported by the World Health Organization 6, 7, local authorities 8, 9, 10, and encouraged on social media platforms 11, 12, 13. Such policies across multiple jurisdictions were suggested by some experts 5. To achieve source control and stop transmission, social distancing has been interpreted by many as staying at home. Wearing masks, taking personal precautions, testing for COVID-19 and social distancing have been advocated for controlling the pandemic 2, 3, 4. With our results, we were not able to explain if COVID-19 mortality is reduced by staying at home in ~ 98% of the comparisons after epidemiological weeks 9 to 34.īy late January, 2021, approximately 2.1 million people worldwide had died from the new coronavirus (COVID-19) 1. Only 63 (1.6%) comparisons were significant. After preprocessing the data, 87 regions around the world were included, yielding 3741 pairwise comparisons for linear regression analysis. The analysis was performed using linear regression with special attention to residual analysis. Data were preprocessed and analyzed using the difference between number of deaths/million between 2 regions and the difference between the percentage of staying at home. Countries with > 100 deaths and with a Healthcare Access and Quality Index of ≥ 67 were included. In this ecological study, data from and were combined. Our objective was to assess the association between staying at home (%) and the reduction/increase in the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in several regions in the world.
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The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID-19 controlled, may raise some concerns.
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A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission.